Mid-Term elections prediction

With the midterm elections less than two months away now, I figured I would chime in with my predictions since CNN has obviously done so: Anti-Incumbent voter story. This anti-incumbent piece also hits the high points: Greenfield: A gathering anti-incumbent storm.

Prior to making this prediction, I should say that I believe that if the so-called myspace generation used such online resources such as myspace and youtube as a flag to unite behind, the entire system could be overhauled in three election cycles. For those of you familiar with corporate governance and tiered voting systems, it’s obviously an ambitious goal, but given the right charisma and controlling the 18-32 voting block and positioning yourself against the 32-54, 55-64, and old people voting block, it can be done. MTV says to rock the vote; I don’t know if that’s the right strategy but an infusion of new blood never hurts.

Anyway, I don’t think this particular election is so much about incumbents as the articles I pointed to suggest it is; rather, I think we’re back to the blue state v. red state debate again (unfortunately). Washington has quickly forgotten about the Arab port debacle and undoubtedly will sidestep the stem cell issue for another election cycle. Rather, this election will focus simply on the Republican candidates (Lieberman aside) and whether the current Congress is putting this country two steps ahead or holding it back.

I’m sure the Iraq conflict will make its way into the mix as well, but let’s be honest – this election is only an interim gauge on where the political majority stands and whether the next two years will be more productive for the new House/Senate majorities. Assuming the general voting public has reached its breaking point with the conservative extremes but isn’t quite ready to embrace the liberal counterpoint, my suspicion is that the successful candidates across the country will simply play to the middle left.

Any Republican candidate, if they are to be successful, will have to position themselves away from the main party line and appear more progressive, and will likely take a firm stance on immigration reform and security issues when they should be focusing on social security reform and a massive jobs works incentive program. The successful Democratic candidate (who is probably an incumbent) will pretty much play the same card, but will argue how he or she has been thwarted in Congress by a narrow majority, maybe throw a anti-gay amendment remark in, and simply position him or herself a little more to the left against his or her opponent. After the election, someone will write a book on how we really don’t even have a two party system anymore and all elections can really be indicative of is how the voting majority feels at the current time. This person will probably get a press credential at the next election.

I predict (and by predict, I mean suspect) that the Democrats will gain a majority in at least one of the chambers, if not both. I certainly won't be surprised if control does not shift at all. If Congressional control does not change hands, the Republicans will be left with an even greater challenge to deal with in ’08 since this would mean that the next two years would not significantly alter as far as the growth of the economy and decline of unemployment levels. I would go as far as to speculate that the Republicans almost would rather lose here in order to better position themselves for the bigger victory two years down the road. Assuming the Republicans lose control of at least one house, however, such a change will unsurprisingly alter the presidential election in ’08 and "Issues '08" will be very similar to "Issues '06." So there’s my prediction. It is based merely on an uninformed, relatively unresearched opinion that I made up just now.

While the opinions expressed here suggests no real idea of how a new candidate (at any level) can begin to make the changes necessary for our economy to jump start again, and for all intent and purpose, actually has very little substance, I can state with certainty that change is coming. As focused as the Republican party has been, the burgeoning Chinese and Indian economies and their collective impact on the world resources/economy has begun to crack the party line.

Putting that elephant in the room aside for the time being, the (liberal) media as well as the liberalized youth of the country are beginning to swell behind an unspoken idea that perhaps the only way to begin to address these problems is to clean house. Case in point, Katie Couric. It’s just a matter of time before the younger, John F. Kennedy style (minus the bootlegging roots), Katie Couric-esque candidates come in and tap the Internet to its 75 or 85% potential in order to win the respective election to which they seek.

In sum, our generation of tv watchers is ripe for some young idealist to sweep in and make a bunch of brash and probably unattainable promises. Carry the youth vote over the 72-is-the-new-69 demographic and any election is yours. If you don’t believe me, just look at American Idol (keeping in mind that their “voting results” are inherently misleading because you can vote multiple times, but Idol carries both the youth and elder generations). Bill Clinton would certainly agree that positions are constantly changing anyway, and since the lockbox of social security appears to still be untouched eight years later, promise away. Accountability only appears around election time, and even then most people don't really know what they are voting for anyway, other than whether the candidate is blue or red.