Why Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Virginia are, almost atypically, the key to this election - some final thoughts about the 2008 election

Let's talk about numbers. It takes 270 points to win the presidential election. Bigger states have more points, but in the end, it's just a numbers game. So who has the easiest road to get to 270? My research, explained below, suggests that Obama can easily get to 270 against McCain, whereas Clinton can, but it will certainly be a harder battle, in over a dozen states, and if the Dems still want to try and duke out Florida and Michigan, the money is probably going to become a bigger issue in the next couple months. My prediction: Obama 320 – McCain 147 (without even considering Ohio and Michigan, or Florida for that matter). Clinton 255 - McCain 201 (leaving much more uncertainty on who can actually win, or how close November 2008 will be).

The point of this entry is just to show a different breakdown of electoral numbers; I would imagine the mainstream media will start making these projections later in the summer, but I'm positive that all three camps have started to run these numbers in much more detail than I have below.

After this entry, I am going to abstain from further comment about this election save perhaps a couple thoughts that may emerge later in the year. My understanding of the bias of the media and after giving some thought to the state of blogging, I am convinced that any further blogging on this topic (by me anyway) will simply be white noise contributing to a larger problem with this particular form of media (more on that another time).

I have run numbers based on whether Clinton or Obama is the front of the Democratic ticket against McCain. While the media has not keyed in on this yet, I see a different "battle ground" of states depending on who is at the front of the ticket. (And, ironically, I note that more media has picked up on my January 21 suggestion that only if Clinton wins the nomination would she go for Obama as VP; the opposite probably would not be realistic). Enough background.

Assuming the "typical Democratic states" stay as much, I see the following four states, and only these four states, being essential to the election this time around (with electoral votes in parentheses): Georgia (15), Louisiana (9), South Carolina (8), Virginia (13). While I acknowledge that these are quite typically Republican states, I see an unusually large amount of Republican resources being used to secure these states if Obama is the Democratic nominee. The point to all of this, as should become obvious if you examine the numbers the same way I do, is to say that Obama probably should be the Democratic nominee, and the media (and Clinton's) continued dragging out of this process is only giving McCain's candidacy more strength. This also assumes that the prototypically apathetic youth vote (captivated by Obama) comes out in droves come November. Here's how I reach this conclusion.

Based on the past four election cycles, the following states are more than likely going to go to McCain in November: Alaska (3); Arizona (10); North Carolina (15); South Dakota (3); Utah (5); Wyoming (3). These additional states are typically Republican and based on the primary turnout, I don't see any indication that they will switch "blue": Idaho (4); Indiana (11); Nebraska (5); Nevada (5); Texas (34). I do acknowledge that Texas is going to be closer than normal, but will assume that it stays Republican for my purposes because Pennsylvania (also close, will likely stay Democratic).

The following states are typically Democratic states: California (55); Connecticut (7); Delaware (3); D.C. (3); Hawaii (4); Illinois (21); Maine (4); Maryland (10); Massachusetts (12); Minnesota (10); New Jersey (15); New York (31); Oregon (7); Pennsylvania (21); Rhode Island (4); Vermont (3); Wisconsin (10). As I mentioned, Pennsylvania is the most vulnerable on this list, but I think it winds up staying Democratic.

This would put McCain at 94 to Obama/Clinton’s 220 without even getting into the close states. Granted, Texas and Pennsylvania provide big swing for either party, but I'll keep them at Republican and Democrat, respectively, for my purposes.

Based on the primary turnout, the following states are going to be close races: Alabama (9), Colorado (9); Florida (27); Georgia (15); Louisiana (9); Michigan (17); Mississippi (6); Missouri (11); Montana (3); Ohio (20); Oklahoma (7); Tennessee (11); Virginia (13); Washington (11); and West Virginia (5). This would leave about 173 "points" up for grabs, which would make the election close once again.

Assuming that all of the republicans who did not vote for McCain stick to the party ticket, the race shapes up to be pretty interesting, but ultimately a Democratic blowout depending on the candidate. I am sure that these similar number scenarios have been run at the RNC, and they have to be scrambling right now if my assumptions are correct.

I see Alabama and Colorado as both being close, with Alabama likely going to McCain and Colorado going to the Democrat (although it would be a less close if Clinton was the Democratic nominee). Florida, in all likelihood, will go to McCain. Republican turnout on that primary day was 1.9 million to almost 1.7 million, so I’m calling it red.

Georgia presents an interesting case. The average numbers of democrat and republican voters over the past four election cycles is 1.134 million and 1.353 million respectively. In the primary, those numbers were 1.046 million to .954 million. Obama won handily over Clinton in this state, drawing almost 700k to 328k (with 18k going to "other"). McCain pulled a little more than 300k, and if you assume the other 650k does not have a high attrition rate, that gives you the 954,000 republican voters. If Obama is the ticket, I think he pulls off a few hundred thousand from Clinton and edges out McCain for the 15 points. If Clinton is the ticket, I think McCain edges her out and the state stays republican. So, there is a 15 point swing depending on who is the nominee.

Iowa, Kansas, and Kentucky are usually close and usually Republican, and for my purposes, will not make a difference in the outcome.

Louisiana, like Georgia, is another interesting case. The state has been convincingly republican the last two elections after being much closer in 1992 and 1996. Democrats and Republicans both had to come out to decide on February 9, and Huckabee edged out McCain 69k to 67k and Obama throttled Clinton 220k to 136k. I see Louisiana having a similar outcome as Georgia depending on who the Democratic nominee is. While it would be less close with Obama as the nominee, I think the nearly 2:1 democrat to republican turnout indicates that this state could go blue. That’s 9 more points.

Michigan, Mississippi, and Montana will be close either way, and I am not counting them here.

Missouri is really the battleground for both parties. Obama edged out Clinton here 405k to 395k, but if you assume Edwards draws more toward Obama than Clinton, his lead increases by another four or five thousand. McCain won this one by the skin of his teeth (194k to Huckabee and Romney’s 185k and 172k, respectively). Dems outvoted Republicans 820k to 584k, and the average over the past four election cycles is nearly even, at 1.112 million democrats to 1.086 million republicans. Given the turnout, I'm inclined to give Missouri to the Democrats, and more inclined to do so if Obama is able to pull in similar numbers. Thus, there is another 11 points up in the air, with the edge going to the Democrats.

I would guess New Hampshire is going to go democratic. Primary voting for the democrats exceeded that of that state’s 4-term national average (284k compared to the average of 265k), and the Republican turnout was nearly as high (233k turnout nearly the 250k average). Presuming similar numbers, I would say this one goes to the Democrat candidate regardless of the nominee. On primary day, Clinton edged out Obama. 4 points isn’t a lot, but it’s something.

New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and West Virginia are hard to say. No matter.

I am inclined to think that North Dakota could flip, despite it typically being a Republican state. I only base that off of the 2:1 primary turnout for the Democrats. Romney won this state over McCain, and Obama had a 3:2 advantage over Clinton (12k to 7k) but compared to ND’s national average, primary day there had a relatively low turnout. Nevertheless, even if it stays Republican, its too little points too late in the process.

South Carolina is typically republican, but I think Obama could pull this one in for the democrats (presuming Edwards support helps). Turnout for Democrats, as in New Hampshire was nearly the national November average (530k voted compared to 552k four-cycle average). On the republican side (on a different day), 442k came out to vote (compared to 718k average). McCain won with 33% of the vote, and Obama nearly 55% to Clinton’s 27%. If Obama can pull Edwards supporters, he nearly doubles that of McCain, and still edges him out if you put together McCain and Huckabee’s combined vote. Clinton, by comparison, came up a bit short against McCain (141k against 147k). I would count this state as +8 for the Democrats if Obama is the nominee, and +8 for the Republicans if Hillary is.

Tennessee is another close one. On both sides, primary turnout was about half of that state's 4-year voting average. Clinton won this state pretty handily over Obama (332k to 250k), and Huckabee took McCain on it. This is going to be another battleground state for 11 crucial points, regardless of who the nominee is. I'm inclined to give it to the Dems, however based on the primary turnout (which, may have been in part due to Obama).

Washington and Virginia are typically close. Washington has gone democratic by a slim margin each of the past four election cycles, and I would imagine it would stay the same this time around. Washington went 70:30 for Obama over Clinton on February 9, and Clinton would have beat McCain, but counting Huckabee and Paul, it would be close like normal. I think if Obama has the nominee, Washington is won handily by the Democrats, but if Clinton is, she still wins, but it makes for a much tighter race. +11 for Democrats.

Virginia tends to go Republican, but given the turnout, I’m inclined to think that Obama can pull in huge numbers and possibly a huge upset. Voter turnout for the Democrats was 75% of the 4-year average (970k compared to the 1.2 million average). Republican turnout was far less than the average, almost 500k compared to 1.3 million. This was another state where Obama had a nearly 3:2 advantage over Clinton. Obama’s 623k would have beaten both of McCain (244k) and Huckabee’s (200k) votes combined; Clinton as nominee (347k) would make the race much closer, and probably once you factor in the regular average, would go to McCain. So, this is another 13 point swing depending on whether Obama or Clinton is the candidate.

If my 220-94 initial number is correct, then the Democrats would need only 50 more points to win. Assuming Washington stays blue, that puts the Democrats only 39 points away from locking in a victory without even worrying about Ohio, Florida, or Michigan. This assumes that the Democrats hang onto Pennsylvania.

Thus, I see this election most easily coming from just four states: Georgia (15), Louisiana (9), South Carolina (8), Virginia (13). The 45 points give the Democrats the victory without even worrying about the typical "swing" states (Florida, Ohio, Michigan). New Hampshire is unnecessary, but certainly provides another four point cushion.

If those states that typically vote Democratic stick with their party, the race really could come down to winning these four states. The rest, while important for the winning party to take in order to try and unify the country, are "battles" as usual, but only if the campaigns are as they have been for the past two cycles.

As I have explained, each of these four states (Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Virginia) was won convincingly by Obama in the primaries, and given the increased voter turnout in each of them, the Republicans would be foolish to think these are a lock if Obama is the candidate. If Clinton wins the nomination, however, these states are as up in the air as Florida, Michigan and Ohio. Just looking at the numbers, McCain fares a much better chance against Clinton than Obama. While both races may be ultimately be close, it’s no wonder that McCain and the Republicans would rather have Clinton at the top of their ticket. My question is why the Democrats haven't thought this one out in this fashion yet. Maybe they just want to lose.

I'm sure both parties have better access to voting information than I do since mine is based simply on data in the public domain, and have superior mathematicians and statisticians who can analyze it and make more educated projections. Nevertheless, if Obama wins the nomination, it seems that he pulls from a broader spectrum of voters, which only diminishes McCain’s chances. Clinton seems to pull from the same pocket, which lends itself to a similar 50/50 split.

Without counting Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, and West Virginia, my prediction scores of the electoral college are as follows: Obama 320 – McCain 147. Now, Ohio and Michigan (and Florida) and the other states are all important for the good of the country, but even if it's close, these other states won't make up the difference if the Democrats focus on and win these four states.

If Clinton is the ticket, I see a lot more states up in the air (including these four), although realistically, Clinton probably has the edge out all things considered. Relevant to my point, the closeness of Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and Virginia may keep them Republican, and leave Tennessee even more susceptible (hence I don’t count it either way). These four or five states swinging the other way puts her at 255-201, and in a similar battle to that of 2000 and 2004.

I think my bottom line is clear. Republicans have a much easier road to election victory with Clinton as the front of the Democratic ticket; it becomes much less certain and vulnerable if Obama is. That being said, I fail to see why Clinton is so adamant about being on top of the ticket and the media continues to tout this whole process as being Clinton against the world. I thought the point of either party is to put up the candidate they think has the best chances of unifying the country. Perhaps I am being naive. Hasn’t this country been divided for long enough though?

My conclusions are based on my research on this subject (based in part on CNN's primary data, the national archives, and Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections (compiling historic election data)).

Tags: electoral college, typical republican and democrat states, who will win in november, are obama's strongest states also the most vulnerable